Figure 15: NASA X-plane: Blended Wing Body designed by Boeing . electric VTOL (vertical take-off and landing) aircraft that can accommodate up to two ntrs.nasa/archive/nasa/casi.ntrs.nasa/20140012638.pdf. [8]. FAA.
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NOTICE DISCLAIMER. The information contained in this publication is subject to constant review in the light of changing government requirements and regulations. No subscriber or other reader should act on the basis of any such information without referring to applicable laws and regulations and/or without taking appropriate professio nal advice. Although every effort has been made to ensure accuracy, the International Air Transport Association shall not be held responsible for any loss or damage caused by errors, omissions, misprints or misinterpretation of the contents hereof. Further more, the International Air Transport Association expressly disclaims any and all liability to any person or entity, whether a purchaser of this publication or not, in respect of anything done or omitted, and the consequences of anything done or omitted, by any such person or entity in reliance on the contents of this publication. © International Air Transport Association. All Rights Reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, recast, reformatted or transmitted in any form by any mean s, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording or any information storage and retrieval system, without the prior written permission from: Senior Vice President Member & External Relations International Air Transport Association 33, Route d e l™Aéroport 1215 Geneva 15 Airport Switzerland
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3 Table of Contents Table of Contents 3 Abbreviations .. 4 Figures 5 Tables .. 6 Executive Summary .. 7 1. Introduction . 9 1.1. Background .. 9 1.2. Scope of this Report 11 1.3. Technology Objectives . 11 2. Evolutionary Aircraft Technologies .. 14 2.1. Baseline Fleet and Imminent Aircraft .. 14 2.2. Future Technologies 16 2.3. Individual Technologies 18 3. Revolutionary Aircraft Technologies .. 21 3.1. Novel Airframe Configurations .. 21 3.2. Revolutionary Structure and Materials .. 24 3.3. Revolutionary Propulsion Technology 25 3.4. Assessment of Revolutionary Technology Concepts and Deployment Challenges 31 3.5. Economic Aspects of Revolutionary Aircraft Development Programs . 34 4. Modelling Future Aircraft Emissions 36 4.1. Selection of Technology Scenarios . 36 4.2. Fleet Simulation Results 38 4.3. Technology and Aircraft Program Sensitivity: Fuel Calculation Results . 39 4.4. Annual CO 2 Improvements at Global Fleet Level . 41 5. Disruptive Technologies . 43 6. Conclusions and Recommendations . 45 7. References 47 Acknowledgements .. 51
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4 Abbreviations ACARE Advisory Council for Aviation Research and Innovation in Europe APU Auxiliary Power Unit ASK Available Seat Kilometer ATRU Auto Transformer Rectifier Unit BLADE Breakthrough Laminar Aircraft Demonstrator in Europe BLI Boundary -Layer Ingestion BPR Bypass Ratio BWB Blended Wing Body CENTRELINE Conc ept validatio n study fo r fuselag e wakefil lIng propulsio n int egration CLEEN Continuous Lower Energy, Emissions and Noise CO2 Carbon Dioxide CORSIA Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation DC Direct Current DLR German Aerospace Center (Deutsches Zentrum f ür Luft – und Raumfahrt) DOC Direct Operating Costs EGTS Electric Green Taxiing System EIS Entry into Service ERA Environmentally Responsible Aviation GARDN Green Aviation Research and Development Network HLFC Hybrid Laminar Flow Control HWB Hybrid Wing Body IATA International Air Transport Association ICAO International Civil Aviation Organization InP In-production LUC Land -Use Change MIT Massachusetts Institute of Technology NASA National Aeronautics and Space Agency NLF Natural Laminar Flow NMA New Midsize Aircraft NT New Type PFC Propulsive Fuselage Concept RPK Revenue Passenger Kilo meter R&T Research and Technology SAF Sustainable Aviation Fuel SAW Spanwise Adaptive Wing SMA Shape Memory Alloy SUGAR Subsonic Ultra Green Aircraft Research TRL Technology Readiness Level VTOL Vertical Take -Off and Landing
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5 Figures Figure 1: Evolution of Aircraft Technology . 9 Figure 2: (Left) Commercial avia tion CO 2 emissions (right scale) compared to overall anthropogenic CO 2 emissions (left scale), broken down into industrial emissions (fossil fuel and cement) and land use change (LUC) (from [2]); (Right) Commercial aviation CO 2 emissions compared to overal l anthropogenic CO 2 emissions 10 Figure 3: Schematic CO 2 emissions reduction roadmap .. 10 Figure 4: Timeline of expected future fuel efficiency improvements compared to predecessor aircraft or engine of the same category, details are given in Chapters 2 and 3 . 13 Figure 5: Expected sequence of future aircraft generations in different seat categories, including recent indications on new developments (based on [22]) . 16 Figure 6: The NASA TRL Meter [23] 18 Figure 7: A340 Laminar Flow BLADE demonstrator first flight 18 Figure 8: Improved efficiency levels o f Rolls -Royce Trent engine generations from the Trent 800 onwards . 19 Figure 9 : Ultra -High Bypass Ratio engine design (Safran UHBR Clean Sky project) .. 19 Figure 10: GE9X engine design .. 19 Figure 11: Aircraft landing gear with Safran Electric Green Taxiing System . 20 Figure 12: Potential timeframes for the availability of analyzed aircraft and engine concepts for airliners .. 21 Figure 13: Strut -braced Wing with Open Rotor designed by NASA/Boeing .. 22 Figure 14: Blended Wing Body designed by DLR . 22 Figure 15: NASA X -plane: Blended Wing Body designed by Boeing . 22 Figure 16: NASA X -plane: Blended Wing Body designed by DZYNE . 23 Figure 17: Insertion of a T -plug to grow the capacity of a BWB (from [39] ) 23 Figure 18: Flying -V aircraft concept developed by TU Delft in collaboration with KLM . 23 Figure 19: NASA X -plane: Double -bubble designed by Aurora Flight Sciences 24 Figu re 20: Parsifal Box -wing design .. 24 Figure 21: Shape Memory Alloy technology designed by NASA .. 24 Figure 22: Morphing Wing technology designed by NASA/MIT . 25 Figure 23: Safran Counter -Rotating Open Rotor developed in Clean Sky .. 25 Figure 24: Propulsive Fuselage concept by Bauhaus Luftfahrt, integrating boundary layer ingestion and airframe wake filling 25 Figure 25: CENTRELINE technology concept for fuselage wake -filling propulsion integration . 26 Figure 26: Share of electricity from CO 2-free primary energies (renewable plus nuclear) for two policy -driven scenarios (from [55] ) . 26 Figure 27: Electric propulsion architectures [56] 27 Figure 28: Step -by-step approach in the penetration of electrically -powered aircraft into the market 28 Figure 29: E -Fan X Technology designed by Airbus . 28 Figure 30: Hybrid -Electric Aircraft designed by Zunum . 29 Figure 31: NASA X -plane: STARC -ABL design 29 Figure 32: Wright Electric battery -powered aircraft concept with distributed propulsion . 30 Figure 33: Ce -Liner Aircraft designed by Bauhaus Luftfahrt . 30 Figure 34: NASA Turboelectric Blended Wing Body . 30 Figure 35: Outlook for Electric Propulsion Market (optimistic view) .. 31 Figure 36: Technology scenarios T1 to T4: Selected technologies for each seat category and aircraft generation .. 37 Figure 37: IATA 2017 long -term air traffic forecast 38 Figure 38: Fleet forecast modelling, based on the IATA DOWN scenar io 38
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6 Figure 39: Fleet forecast modelling, based on the IATA BASE scenario .. 38 Figure 40: Fleet forecast modelling, based on the IATA UP scenario .. 38 Figure 41: IATA DOWN traffic scenario: Relative world fleet CO 2 emissions for technology scenarios T1, T2, T3, T4a (left), T1, T2, T3, T4b (right) . 39 Figure 42: IATA BASE traffic scenario: Relative world fleet CO 2 emissions for technology scenarios T1, T2, T3, T4a (left), T1, T2, T3, T4b (right) . 40 Figure 43: IATA UP traffic scenario: Relative world fleet CO 2 emissions for technology scenarios T1, T2, T3, T4a (left), T1, T2, T3, T4b (right) 40 Figure 44: IATA DOWN scenario. Year -to-year im provement in CO2 intensity of the global fleet, for technology scenarios T1, T2, T3, T4a (left), T1, T2, T3, T4b (right) . 41 Figure 4 5: IATA BASE scenario. Year -to-year improvement in CO 2 intensity of the global fleet, for technology scenarios T1, T2, T3, T4a (left), T1, T2, T3, T4b (right) .. 42 Figure 46: IATA UP scenario. Year -to-year improvement in CO 2 intensity of the global fleet, for technology scenarios T1, T2, T3, T4a (left), T1, T2, T3, T4b (right) 42 Figure 47: Virgin Hyperloop One: Design of tunnel and capsule .. 43 Figure 48: Supersonic Commercial Jet designed by Boom .. 44 Tables Table 1: List of recent and imminent aircraft (green: recently entered into service Πblue: imminent) 15 Table 2: List of retrofits and upgrades available for aircraft before 2030 17 Table 3: List of new technology concepts (2020 -2035) 17 Tabl e 4: List of Hybrid -Electric Aircraft Concepts .. 29 Table 5: Total fuel burn improvement of unfixed aircraft programs .. 36
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8 already in operation . Specialized start -up companies work on 15 to 20 -seaters for the next decade and 50 to 100 -seater regional aircraft , announced for entry into service around 2035. Even though this time scale seems optimistic, it shows the stepwise scalability of electric aircraft technology, which helps reduce its development risk. While today about 65% of electricity generation come s from fossil sources and produce s significant amounts of CO2, it is likely that the share of rene wable electricity will increase noticeably in the next decades , thanks to governments™ and industries™ current focus on climate action throughout all sectors . Operational aspects Most radically new aircraft configurations yield additional benefits beyond f uel efficiency, such as lower maintenance costs for electric motors compared to combustion engines, or better aircraft utilization over a day thanks to shorter airport turnaround time for small blended wing bodies. However, new challenges arise for the imp lementation and operation of these aircraft. Such challenges could be the required adaptation of the airport infrastructure for large blended wing bodies, the need for high -power electricity supply for recharging electric aircraft, and issues with higher n oise levels and lower flight speeds for open rotors. Economic aspects The additional operational benefits and potential challenges have to be considered together with fuel savings when establishing a business case for radically new aircraft. If the direct operating costs (DOC) for a new aircraft type are significantly lower than for comparable models, a higher purchase price can be justified . However, a very high aircraft price, even if linked to high DOC savings, may present a prohibitive risk for airlines as customers. Manufacturers need to consider these aspects when setting their prices and determining the number of aircraft to be sold to reach the break -even point. The development of a radically new aircraft type represents a very high investment for a ircraft manufacturers , which may be considered too risky as long as incremental developments building upon existing aircraft concepts could offer a similar degree of improvement . On the other hand , radically new aircraft are a good opportunity for newcomer s in the aerospace market with specialized skills. Estimated carbon reductions The impact of new technologies on future CO2 emissions of the global aviation fleet is modelled for different scenarios describing various degrees of air traffic growth and technology implementation. Three air traffic growth scenarios, which were developed in the IATA 20 -year passenger forecast, were combined with five technology implementation scenarios. Compared to the reference case with no new aircraft models introduced aft er the imminent ones, the most optimistic scenario with the introduction of electric aircraft over 150 seats before 2050 achieves a reduction of typically 25% of CO2 emissions. After a peak in the current years with annual fuel efficiency improvements well above 1.5% until shortly after 2020, a slowdown of improvement below 1.0% p.a. in the late 2020s is observed (which does not consider entry into service of a fully new 210Œ300 -seater in the mid -2020s, as its development has not yet been announced official ly). After 2035, the improvement rate strongly depends on the scenario chosen and reaches values in the order of 3% p.a. for the most optimistic electrification scenario. Disruptive technologies Finally, a short outlook is given on two disruptive transport types that might partially replace subsonic commercial flight in the near future: For short -haul traffic, Hyperloop is a ground -based passenger and cargo transport system currently in the test p hase, reaching similar travel speeds as commercial aircraft . For long -haul connections, new supersonic aircraft, which are currently under development, are expected to see a revival in the 2020s, first for business and later for commercial travel. However, the environmental challenges related to supersonic aircraft are higher than for subsonic aircraft. Recommendations Recommendations for a seamless implementation of radically new aircraft are given. In particular, close cooperation between all aviation stakeholders, including newcomers specialized in single categories of novel aircraft, is required with sufficient lead time to prepare adaptations of airport and airspace infrastructure and to develop necessary standards and regulations. Airlines should proactively show their interest in new fuel -efficient aircraft contributing to the Industry™s climate action goals, to gi ve manufacturers more certainty about the expected demand, which is needed to launch a new aircraft program.
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9 1. Introduction 1.1. Background Since the Wright brothers™ first flight in 1903, air transpor t has been constantly growing and modernizing. Within a century, tremendous progress has been achieved in aircraft design and flight operations, revolutionizing transport for people and goods and making it a truly global industry. Aviation has always been strongly dependent on economic and political factors and, despite experiencing crises, is now well established throughout the world as an indispensable means of transport ensuring global connectivity. Since the early jet age, the volume of air transport h as doubled about every fifteen to twenty years, which makes it the fastest growing transport sector. With growth in tourism and trade, aviation is expected to continue expanding in the future at a similar rate as today. Recent forecasts show that by 2036, air passenger traffic is expected to grow at an average rate of 3.7% per annum, respectively, reaching almost 14 trillion revenue passenger -kilometers (RPK) more than the double compared to 2016 [1] . Aviation has long been t he focus of public attention for its environmental impact, such as noise, pollutant emissions and, more recently, carbon dioxide (CO 2) emissions. While aviation emissions have consistently grown in absolute terms over the past , the global share that they r epresent among all man -made CO 2 emissions has been fairly constant with 2% (see Figure 2, from data by the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center [2] . This means that the emissions of aviation [3] , despite being one of the mos t strongly growing sectors with a continuous growth rate between 4 and 5% p.a., have not been growing faster than the average of all man -made CO 2 emissions. In 2009, the entire aviation industry ( comprising airlines, aerospace manufacturers, airports, air navigation service providers and business aviation) committed to high -level climate action goals [4] , which are: Ł improving fuel efficiency by 1.5% per annum between 2009 and 2020; Ł achieving net carbon neutral growth from 2020; Ł reducing global net aviation carbon emissions by 50% by the year 2050 relatively to 2005. In order to meet these goals, aviation stakeholders have adopted a multi -faceted strategy [4] , which is based on: technology (including more fuel -efficient aircraft as well as sustainable alternative fuels [SAF ]), efficient flight operations, improved airspace and airport infrastructure , and positive economic measures. Achieving these goals is a highly challenging task . In parti cular, the 2050 goal of 50% reduction of aviation™s global carbon footprint requires the combination of all possible contributions from all stakeholders (aircraft and engine manufacturers, airlines, airports and air navigation service providers [ANSPs]) an d all of the four pillars (technology for aircraft and engines as well as sustainable fuels, operations, infrastructure and market -based measures). The Wright Flyer , 1903 DH 106 Comet , 1959 Airbus A350 -XWB -1000, 2018 Figure 1: Evolution of Aircraft Technology Achieving aviation™s climate goals is a highly challe nging task and requires the combination of all possible contributions from all stakeholders and all pillars of the IATA strategy .
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Figure 2: (Left) Commercial aviation CO 2 emissions (right scale) compared to overall anthropogenic CO 2 emissions (left scale) , broken down into industrial emissions (fossil fuel and cement) and land use change (LUC) (from [2] ); (Right) Commercial aviation CO 2 emissions compared to overall anthropogenic CO 2 emissions Figure 3: Schematic CO 2 emissions reduction roadmap Ł The focus of this roadmap is on green aircraft technology . Continuous improvement of aircraft fuel efficiency plays a crucial role in working towards the 2050 carbon reduction goal. In fact, since the beginning of the jet age, technological innovations such as lighter materials, higher engine performance and aer odynamic improvements have reduced fuel consumption per passenger -km or ton -km of aircraft by over 70%. Further substantial reductions from new technologies are expected in future. However, when new, more efficient aircraft are introduced, it takes severa l years after entry into service (EIS) until they penetrate the market in sufficient number and their benefits are noticeable at a world fleet fuel efficiency level. Ł Sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) produce typically up to 80% lower CO2 emissions on a lifecycle basis than conventional (fossil) jet fuel. Currently, a variety of pathways from biogenic sources are certified for aviation use, and more are under development, including non -biogenic fuels such as Power -to-liquid. All SAF types co nsidered today are drop -in fuels, i.e. they have very similar physical and chemical properties to conventional jet fuel and can be blended with it over
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11 a wide percentage range. The main obstacle to wide implementation of SAF is not technical, but economic, as SAF is not yet produced at competitive cost compared to conventional jet fuel. Ł Operational improvements include measures taken by airlines, airports and ANSPs in their day -to-day operations, such as reducing the weight of onboard equipment, selecting m ost fuel -efficient routes or flight profiles and using fixed ground power supply instead of the aircraft™s auxiliary power unit (APU) during airport turnaround. Ł Airport and airspace infrastructure improvements include creation and installation of new fligh t routes, airport runways, procedures or equipment that allow more fuel -efficient operations. Ł Finally, market -based measures do not reduce physical emissions within the aviation sector but help achieve emissions reductions in other sectors where they are more cost -effective. Driven by the current momentum towards renewable energy and States™ commitments under the Paris agreement, it is likely that other industry sectors will move to decarbonize in the coming decades. One example is replacing fossil fuel po wered cars by electric ones. Aviation needs to make strong efforts to reduce its CO2 emissions at a similar pace . The IATA four -pillar strategy helps to achieve this goal. 1.2. Scope of this Report In its role to represent, lead, and serve the aviation industry, IATA is bringing together manufacturers, researchers, infrastructure providers, government agencies as well as airlines to ensure that all stakeholders work together to achieve the best result s in reaching the aviation industry™s climate goals through the commitment to improving technology for the future air fleet. This report aims to show a possible timeline of future technological innovations and their effect in reducing CO 2 emissions from the global aircraft fleet and the likelih ood of their implementation . Some can be retrofitted to aircraft in service, others can be implemented as serial upgrades in existing models, and some require new aircraft designs. From 2035 onwards, radical technological innovations with higher fuel effic iencies including aircraft configurations other than classical tube and wing and new forms of propulsion , such as battery or hybrid electric power, could become possible. They are expected to allow a substantial contribution to the 2050 carbon reduction go al. However, it must be considered that not all innovations that are technologically feasible will be implemented if they are not sufficiently supported by economic and business considerations. 1.3. Technology Objectives Aviation has always been a high -tech industry, and continuous progress in the development of new technologies is vital for a sustainable growth of the aviation industry. They are not only the basis for a more fuel -efficient fleet, but also a key factor for improvements in flight and ground operations, for a pleasant passenger experience and for reducing as much as possible the impacts of air transport growth on the environment. Responding to the aviation industry™s need for advances in research and technology (R&T), government -funded programs in various countries are an effective means to support R&T activities in aviation. Reducing the New technologies are a key factor for improvements in flight and ground operations, for a pleasant passenger experience and for reducing as much as possible the impacts of air transport growth on the environment. From 2035 onwards, radical technological innovations with higher fuel efficiencies including aircraft configurations other than classical tube and wing and new forms of propulsion , such as battery or hybrid electric power, could become possible.
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