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World Investment Report 2013: Global Value Chains: Investment and Trade for Development iiNOTEThe Division on Investment and Enterprise of UNCTAD is a global centre of excellence, dealing with issues related to investment and enterprise development in the United Nations System. It builds on four decades of experience and international expertise in research and policy analysis, intergovernmental consensus- building, and provides technical assistance to over 150 countries. The terms country/economy as used in this Report also refer, as appropriate, to territories or areas; the designations employed and the presentation of the material do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Secretariat of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. In addition, the designations of country groups are intended solely for statistical or analytical convenience and do not necessarily express a judgment about the stage of development reached by a particular country or area in the development process. The major country groupings used in this Reportof the United Nations Statistical Ofe: Developed countries: the member countries of the OECD (other than Chile, Mexico, the Republic of Korea and Turkey), plus the new European Union member countries which are not OECD members (Bulgaria, Cyprus, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta and Romania), plus Andorra, Bermuda, Liechtenstein, Monaco and San Marino.Transition economies: South-East Europe, the Commonwealth of Independent States and Georgia. China do not include those for Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (Hong Kong SAR), Macao Special Administrative Region (Macao SAR) and Taiwan Province of China. Reference to companies and their activities should not be construed as an endorsement by UNCTAD of those companies or their activities.The boundaries and names shown and designations used on the maps presented in this publication do not imply of The following symbols have been used in the tables:Two dots (..) indicate that data are not available or are not separately reported. Rows in tables have been omitted in those cases where no data are available for any of the elements in the row; A dash (–) indicates that the item is equal to zero or its value is negligible; A blank in a table indicates that the item is not applicable, unless otherwise indicated;A slash (/) between dates repr Use of a dash (–) between dates repr including the beginning and end years;Reference to “dollars” ($) means United States dollars, unless otherwise indicated; Annual rates of growth or change, unless otherwise stated, refer to annual compound rates; Details and percentages in tables do not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. The material contained in this study may be freely quoted with appropriate acknowledgement. UNITED NATIONS PUBLICATION Sales No. E.13.II.D.5ISBN 978-92-1-112868-0eISBN 978-92-1-056212-6Copyright © United Nations, 2013All rights reserved Printed in Switzerland
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iii BAN Ki-moon Secretary-General of the United Nations PREFACE The 2013 World Investment Report comes at an important moment. The international community is making United Nations is working to forge a vision for the post-2015 development agenda. Credible and objective information on foreign direct investment (FDI) can contribute to success in these twin endeavours. Global FDI declined in 2012, mainly due to continued macroeconomic fragility and policy uncertainty for investors, and it is forecast to rise only moderately over the next two years. Yet as this report reveals, the global picture masks a number of major dynamic developments. In 2012 e FDI than developed countries, with four ecipients in the world. Developing countries also generated almost one third trend that looks set to continue. This year’s World Investment Report provides an in-depth analysis, strategic development options and associated with global value chains. This is essential to ensure more inclusive growth and sustainable development. I commend the World Investment Report 2013 to the international investment and development community as a source of rs development challenges.
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World Investment Report 2013: Global Value Chains: Investment and Trade for Development ivACKNOWLEDGEMENTSThe World Investment Report 2013 (WIR13) was prepared by a team led by James Zhan. The team members included Richard Bolwijn, Bruno Casella, Joseph Clements, Hamed El Kady, Kumi Endo, Masataka Fujita, Noelia Garcia Nebra, Thomas van Giffen, Axèle Giroud, Ariel Ivanier, Joachim Karl, Guoyong Liang, Anthony Miller, William Speller, Astrit Sulstarova, Claudia Trentini, Elisabeth Tuerk, Jörg Weber and Kee Hwee Wee. WIR13om the advice of Carlo Altomonte, Richard Baldwin, Carlos Braga, Peter Buckley, Lorraine Eden, Gary Gerefey, Bart Los and Pierre Sauvé. Research and statistical assistance was provided by Bradley Boicourt and Lizanne Martinez. Contributions were also made by Wolfgang Alschner, Amare Bekele, Hector Dip, Ventzislav Kotetzov, Mathabo Le Roux, Kendra Magraw, Abraham Negash, Naomi Rosenthal, Diana Rosert, John Sasuya, Teerawat Wongkaew and Youngjun Yoo, as well as interns Alexandre Genest, Jessica Mullins and Thomas Turner. The manuscript was copy-edited by Lise Lingo and typeset by Laurence Duchemin and Teresita Ventura. Sophie Combette designed the cover. Production and dissemination of WIR13 was supported by Elisabeth Anodeau-Mareschal, Evelyn Benitez, Nathalie Eulaerts, Severine Excof, Rosalina Goyena, Natalia Meramo-Bachayani and Katia Vieu. At various stages of preparation, in particular during the review meetings organized to discuss drafts of WIR13om comments and inputs received from external experts: Rolf Adlung, Michael Bratt, Tomer Broude, Jeremy Clegg, Lorenzo Cotula, Michael Ewing-Chow, Masuma Farooki, Karina Fernandez-Stark, Stephen Gelb, Stine Haakonsson, Inge Ivarsson, Keiichiro Kanemoto, Lise Johnson, Raphie Kaplinsky, Nagesh Kumar, Sarianna Lundan, Bo Meng, Daniel Moran, Michael Mortimore, Ram Mudambi, Rajneesh Narula, Lizbeth Navas-Aleman, Christos Pitelis, William Powers, Zhengzheng Qu, Alexander Raabe, Rajah Rasiah, Arianna Rossi, Armando Rungi, Emily Sims, Gabriele Suder, Tim Sturgeon, Fan Wenjie, Deborah Winkler and Robert Yuskavage. Comments and inputs were also received from many UNCTAD colleagues, including Alfredo Calcagno, Torbjorn Fredriksson, Marco Fugazza, Ebru Gokce, Kalman Kalotay, Joerg Mayer, Alessandro Nicita, Victor Ognivtsev, Celia Ortega Sotes, Yongfu Ouyang, Ralf Peters, Miho Shirotori, Guillermo Valles and Paul Wessendorp. UNCTAD wishes to thank the Eora project team members for their kind collaboration. Numerous ofnment agencies, international organizations and non-governmental organizations also contributed to WIR13nments of Finland, Norway and Sweden is gratefully acknowledged.
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vTABLE OF CONTENTSPREFACE iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS iv ABBREVIATIONS viii KEY MESSAGES ..ix OVERVIEW .xi CHAPTER I. GLOBAL INVESTMENT TRENDS 1 A. GLOBAL TRENDS: THE FDI RECOVERY FALTERS 2 1. Current trends .2 a. FDI by geographical distribution 2 b. FDI by mode and sector/industry . .7 c. FDI by selected types of investors . 10 d. FDI and offshor .15 2. Global FDI prospects in 2013 –2015 ..18 a. General FDI prospects .. 18 b. FDI prospects by sector/industry 20 c. FDI prospects by home region . 21 d. FDI prospects by host region . ..22 B. INTERNATIONAL PRODUCTION ..23 1. Overall trends 23 2. Repositioning: the strategic divestment, relocation and reshoring of foreign operations ..26 C. FDI INCOME AND RATES OF RETURN ..31 1. Trends in FDI income 32 a. General trends ..32 b. Rates of return .. 32 c. Reinvested earnings versus repatriated earnings ..33 2. Impacts of FDI income on the balance of payments of host countries 34 3. Policy implications . 36 CHAPTER II. REGIONAL TRENDS IN FDI ..37 INTRODUCTION .38 A. REGIONAL TRENDS 39 1. Africa .. 39 2. East and South-East Asia .. 44
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World Investment Report 2013: Global Value Chains: Investment and Trade for Development vi3. South Asia . .49 4. West Asia .. ..53 5. Latin America and the Caribbean . .57 6. Transition economies 63 7. Developed countries . 67 B. TRENDS IN STRUCTURALLY WEAK, VULNERABLE AND SMALL ECONOMIES .73 1. Least developed countries . ..73 2. Landlocked developing countries . 783. Small island developing States .. 84 CHAPTER III. RECENT POLICY DEVELOPMENTS ..91 A. NATIONAL INVESTMENT POLICIES 92 1. Overall trends . 92 2. ..9 4a. Services sector .. ..94 b. Strategic industries .95 3. Screening of cross-border M&As .. 964. Risk of investment protectionism 100B. INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENT POLICIES 101 1. Ttrends in the conclusion of IIAs .. ..101 a. Continued decline in treaty-making .101 b. Factoring in sustainable development ..102 2. Trends in the negotiation of IIAs .. 103 a. Regionalism on the rise .. .103 b. Systemic issues arising from regionalism.. ..105 3. IIA regime in transition .. 107 a. Options to improve the IIA regime .107 b. Treaty expirations . ..108 4. Investor–State arbitration: options for reform ..110 a. ISDS cases continue to grow ..110 eform .111 CHAPTER IV. GLOBAL VALUE CHAINS: INVESTMENT AND TRADE FOR DEVELOPMENT ..121 INTRODUCTION ..122 A. GVCS AND PATTERNS OF VALUE ADDED TRADE AND INVESTMENT 123 1. Value added trade patterns in the global economy ..123 2. Value added trade patterns in the developing world 133
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World Investment Report 2013: Global Value Chains: Investment and Trade for Development viiiABBREVIATIONS ADRalternative dispute resolution AGOAAfrican Growth and Opportunity Act APEC ASEANAssociation of Southeast Asian Nations BITbilateral investment treaty CETA Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement CIS Commonwealth of Independent States COMESACommon Market for Eastern and Southern Africa CSRcorporate social responsibility DCFTA Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement DPPdispute prevention policy EPZexport processing zone FDIforeign direct investment FTAfree trade agreement GAPgood agricultural practices GATSGeneral Agreement on Trade in Services GCCGulf Cooperation Council GSPGeneralized System of Preferences GVCglobal value chain IIAinternational investment agreement IPintellectual property IPAinvestment promotion agency IPFSDInvestment Policy Framework for Sustainable Development IRSUnited States Internal Revenue Service ISDSinvestor–State dispute settlement ISOInternational Organization for Standardization LBOleveraged buy-out LDC least developed countries LLDClandlocked developing countries MFNmost favoured nation MRIOmulti-region input-output NAFTANorth American Free Trade Agreement NAICS NEMnon-equity mode OFC offshore centre PPPpublic-private partnership PRAIPrinciples for Responsible Agricultural Investment PTApreferential trade agreement SEZspecial economic zone SICstandar SIDSsmall island developing States SMEsmall and medium-sized enterprise SOEState-owned enterprise SPEspecial purpose entity SWFsovereign wealth fund TNCtransnational corporation TPOtrade promotion organization TPPTeement TRIMSTrade-Related Investment Measures TTIP Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership UNCITRALUnited Nations Commission on International Trade Law WIPS World Investment Prospects Survey WTOWorld Trade Organization
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KEY MESSAGESixKEY MESSAGESGlobal and regional investment trends The road to foreign direct investment (FDI) recovery is bumpy . Global FDI fell by 18 per cent to $1.35 trillion in 2012. The recovery will take longer than expected, mostly because of global economic fragility and policy uncertainty. UNCTAD forecasts FDI in 2013 to remain close to the 2012 level, with an upper range of $1.45 trillion. As investors re expected to reach levels of $1.6 trillion in 2014 and $1.8 trillion in 2015. Howeverowth scenario remain. Developing countries take the leadmor ed in developed countries, which now account for only 42 per cent of steady upward trend. . The uncertain economic outlook led transnational corporations (TNCs) in developed countries to maintain their wait- and-see approach towards new investments or to divest foreign assets, rather than undertake major international expansion. In 2012, 22 of the 38 developed countries experienced a decline in outward FDI, leading to a 23 per cent overall decline. . e still close to their peak level of 2007. Although most international efforts to ough SPEs were almost seven times more important in 2011. The number of countries offering favourable tax conditions for SPEs is also increasing. . FDI income amounted to $1.5 trillion in 2011 on a stock of $21 trillion. The rates of return on FDI are 7 per cent globally, and higher in both developing (8 per cent) and transition economies (13 per cent) than in developed ones (5 per cent). Nearly one third of global FDI income was retained in host economies, and two thirds were repatriated (representing on average 3.4 per cent of the current account payments). The share of retained earnings is highest in developing countries; at about 40 per cent of FDI income it represents an important source of spots. Africa bucked the trend with a 5 per cent incrowth was driven partly by FDI in extractive industries, but investment in consumer-oriented manufacturing and service developing Asia fell 7 per cent, to $407 billion, but remained at a high level. Driven by continued intraregional restructuring, lower-income countries such as Cambodia, Myanmar and Viet Nam are bright spots for labour-intensive FDI. In Latin America and the Caribbean, FDI eased 2 per cent to $244 billion due to a decline in Central America and the Caribbean. This decline was masked by an increase of 12 per cent in South America, where a mix of natural-resource-seeking and market-seeking activity. FDI is on the rise in structurally weak economies least developed countries (LDCs) hit a record high, an increase led by developing-country TNCs, especially from India. A modest increase in FDI landlocked developing countries (LLDCs) occurr small island developing States (SIDS) continued to recover for the second consecutive year, driven by investments in natural-resource-rich countries. , by 32 per cent, to $561 billion – a level last seen almost 10 years ago. The majority of developed countries saw
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World Investment Report 2013: Global Value Chains: Investment and Trade for Development xopean Union, which alone accounted for two thirds of the global FDI decline. Transition economies saw a relatively small decline . A slump in cross-border mergers and acquisitions (M&As) sales caused inwar transition economies to fall by 9 per cent to $87 billion; $51 billion of this went to the Russian Federation, but a large part of it was “round-tripping”. Investment policy trends National investment policymaking is increasingly geared towards new development strategies. Most governments are keen to attract and facilitate foreign investment as a means for productive capacity- building and sustainable development. At the same time, numerous countries are reinforcing the regulatory environment for foreign investment, making more use of industrial policies in strategic sectors, tightening screening and monitoring procedures, and closely scrutinizing cross-border M&As. There is an ongoing risk that some of these measures are undertaken for protectionist purposes. International investment policymaking is in transition. By the end of 2012, the regime of international investment agreements (IIAs) consisted of 3,196 treaties. Today, countries increasingly favour a regional over a bilateral approach to IIA rule making and take into account sustainable development elements. More than 1,300 of today’s 2,857 bilateral investment treaties (BITs) will have reached their “anytime termination phase” by the end of 2013, opening a window of opportunity to address inconsistencies and overlaps in the multi-faceted and multi-layered IIA regime, and to strengthen its development dimension. UNCT . This responds to the debate about the pros and cons of the investment arbitration regime, spurred by an increasing number of cases and persistent concerns about the regime’eform are: promoting alternative dispute resolution, modifying the existing ISDS system through individual IIAs, limiting investors’ access to ISDS, introducing an appeals facility and creating a standing international investment court. Collective efforts at the multilateral level can help develop a consensus on the preferred course of action. Global value chains: investment and trade for developmentToday’s global economy is characterized by global value chains (GVCs) , in which intermediate goods and services are traded in fragmented and internationally dispersed production processes. GVCs are typically coordinated by TNCs, with cross-border trade of inputs and outputs taking place within their networks of afs-length suppliers. TNC-coordinated GVCs account for some 80 per cent of global trade. – about 28 per cent or $5 trillion of the $19 trillion in global gross exports in 2010 – because intermediates are counted several times in world exports, but should be counted only once as “value added in trade”. Patterns of value added trade in GVCs determine the distribution of actual economic gains from trade between individual economies and areater presence of FDI relative to the size of their economies tend to have a higher level of participation in GVCs and to generate relatively more domestic value added from trade. . In developing countries, value added trade contributes nearly 30 per cent to countries’ GDP on average, as compared with 18 per cent in developed countries. And there is a positive correlation between participation in GVCs and growth rates of GDP per capita. GVCs have a direct economic impact on value added, jobs and income. They can also be an important avenue for developing countries to build productive capacity, including through technology dissemination and skill building, thus opening up opportunities for longer-term industrial upgrading.
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KEY MESSAGESxiHowever, participation in GVCs also involves risks . The GDP contribution of GVCs can be limited if countries capture only a small share of the value added created in the chain. Also, technology dissemination, skill building and upgrading are not automatic. Developing countries face the risk of remaining locked into relatively low value added activities. In addition, environmental impacts and social effects, including on working conditions, occupational safety and health, and job security, can be negative. The potential “footlooseness” of GVC activities and increased vulnerability to external shocks pose further risks. Countries need to make a strategic choice to promote or not to promote participation in GVCs. They need to carefully weigh the pros and cons of oactive policies to promote GVCs endowments. Some countries may decide not to promote it; others may not have a choice. In reality, most are already involved in GVCs to a degree. Pr GVC segments; i.e. GVC promotion can be selective. Moreover, GVC participation is only one aspect of a country’s overall development strategy. Policy matters to make GVCs work for development. If countries decide to actively promote GVC participation, e their countries’ trade pr and then evaluate realistic GVC development paths for strategic positioning. Gaining access to GVCs and realizing upgrading opportunities requires a structured approach that includes embedding GVCs in industrial development policies (e.g. targeting GVC tasks and activities); enabling GVC growth by creating a conducive environment for trade and investment and by putting in place infrastructural prerequisites; and building prce. To mitigate the risks involved in GVC participation, these efforts should take place within a strong environmental, social and governance framework, with strengthened regulation and enfor compliance. UNCTAD further proposes thr Synergistic trade and investment policies and institutions. Trade and investment policies often work in silos. In the context of GVCs they can have unintended and counterproductive reciprocal effects. To avoid this, policymakers – where necessary, with the help of international organizations – should carefully review those policy instruments that simultaneously affect investment and trade in GVCs; i.e. trade measures affecting investment and investment measures affecting trade. Furthermore, at the institutional level, the trade and investment links in GVCs call for closer coordination and collaboration between trade and investment promotion agencies. “Regional industrial development compacts”. The relevance of regional value chains underscores the importance of regional cooperation. Regional industrial development compacts could encompass integrated regional trade and investment agreements focusing on liberalization and facilitation, and establishing joint trade and investment promotion mechanisms and institutions. They could also aim to create cross-border industrial clusters thre and joint productive capacity-building. Establishing such compacts requires working in partnership between governments in the region, between governments and international organizations, and between the public and private sectors.Sustainable export processing zones (EPZs). Sustainability is becoming an important factor for and suppliers in GVCs. They could also of expanded support services for corporate social responsibility (CSR) efforts to become catalysts for CSR implementation. Policymakers could consider setting up relevant services, including technical eporting, support on occupational safety and health issues, and recycling or alternative energy facilities, transforming EPZs into centres of excellence for sustainable business. International organizations can help through the establishment of benchmarks, exchanges of best practices and capacity-building programmes.
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